In today’s NHL, there are two types of bad contracts: those that are poisonous and unsalvageable, and those that seem to be a regrettable overpayment. Air Max 270 React Discount . To be fair, there are really only a couple of contracts that fit into that first group. The first would be Toronto’s David Clarkson and his buyout-proof $36.75-million contract signed last summer. The second would be Florida’s Dave Bolland and his $27.5-million deal. One commonality between the players was that each seemed to be signed -- in large part or in totality -- to provide intangibles. The Clarkson and Bolland eras are off to predictably bad starts. (Note: I would very seriously entertain Philadelphia’s Andrew MacDonald as a third player here.) It’s the other group – the ‘regrettable overpayment’ one – that’s fascinating. Here, you have an assortment of players on bad deals for a variety of reasons. Two of those players, including Los Angeles’ Mike Richards and Ottawa’s Colin Greening, were waived this week. Eventually, teams reach breaking points with the respective player, refusing to wait any longer for an increasingly unlikely rebound. I think there’s certainly value in identifying a few of these ‘bad contract’ types that exhibit signs of being salvageable, especially since teams shopping these players are generally looking for little more than cap relief. It’s a bit of a dumpster-diving exercise, but if you have the cap room to roll the dice and take a shot on a potentially-productive player for next to nothing, it’s something worth considering. Carolina’s Alex Semin sits firmly in the bad contracts category, a $35MM healthy scratch who has drawn the ire of head coach Bill Peters. The team is already considering waivers – a buyout is another option, though general manager Ron Francis seems cool to that idea. Alex Semin’s fall from grace has really been about an unprecedented collapse in the scoring department. A quick graph can show how Semin’s raw scoring output has simply fallen apart in 2014-2015: For a player who has never struggled to score at the NHL level, Semin’s fall-off in 2014-2015 is mesmerizing. Making matters worse, the Carolina Hurricanes as a team have seen their shot generation drop off of a cliff, which means fewer overall chances for Semin and the rest of his teammates. Even still, this lack of scoring seems surreal for a player of Semin’s abilities. Abilities that I can say are well established – for all of his criticisms, Semin’s been regarded as a great shooter. Semin’s posted an individual shooting percentage of 13.0% since coming into the league in 2003-2004. When you can sustain a shooting percentage of 13.0% over 1,700 shots, it’s likely that your individual shooting ability is a skill. Perhaps we can expect for his goal-scoring to regress back near his natural mean. But, does that mean much if the player is getting kicked around at even-strength? For a player who has been a routine fixture in the press box, one would assume that Semin’s game has struggled well beyond some poor individual shooting puck luck. To get a better picture of what the team has done historically with Semin on the ice (and is doing in 2014-2015), we can pull out goal rates, scoring chance rates, and shot-attempt rates. Ideally, we like to see that the team in question is better with the player on the ice than off of the ice – a positive relative number would signify as much. If, theoretically, Semin has depreciated as a player, one would expect to see it in the below graph: Well, that’s certainly curious. Other than an odd downtick in the lockout-shortened season, Semin’s teams always seem to be better from a possession (Corsi%) or scoring chance perspective with him on the ice. That’s very, very encouraging. And, for five years straight, Semin’s teams have always been better from a goal-based analysis – including this year. However, the big slide in the RelativeGoal% line is curious – and likely one of the smoking guns working against Semin this season. Carolina may still be better with him on the ice than off, but it’s a razor-thin margin now, a stark contrast from years past. Is there something contributing to that RelativeGoal% slide beyond some unlucky individual shooting? Perhaps there’s something peculiar going on in the defensive end, where Semin and his teammates are getting another dose of some unfavourable variance. And there is our answer. Alex Semin and his teammates can’t seem to buy a save this season. It’s important to note that over the past four seasons, Semin’s goaltenders have stopped around 93% of shots at 5-on-5. This year? 88%. On-ice save percentages are swamped by random variance, and there is virtually no evidence that a forward can control the rate at which saves are made on a year-to-year basis. That is to say: it is extremely unlikely high on-ice save percentage is a skill, and low on-ice save percentage a deficit in a player’s game. Even if you refuse to believe that on-ice save percentage regresses heavily to league averages, you should be convinced by the fact that Semin’s never really had a season like this one from a defensive aspect. Combine that with the fact that Semin’s never really had a season like this one from an individual goal-scoring aspect, and you really have a perfect storm of unfortunate circumstances for a player who can’t seem to get out of his team’s doghouse. None of this makes Semin’s contract a good one – he’s a 30+ forward who relies heavily on his goal-scoring ability, and it’s definitely possible that age regression’s going to bite hard in coming years. That said, I think there are a lot of factors working against Semin outside of his control right now. And, if I have a chance to move one of my bad contracts out for the bad contract of Semin, it’s a move I strongly consider. This sort of trade is all about calculating risk and reward, and with Semin, there’s far greater potential for payoff than many of the other players currently sitting with unsavoury term and dollar. Cheap Vapormax China . While plenty of statistics illustrate Torontos turnaround in the second year of manager Ryan Nelsens tenure, stopping goals is not one of them. Balenciaga Shoes Clearance . Vonn "reopened" the idea of competing in the season-opening World Cup event on Oct. 26-27 in Soelden, Austria after returning to the slopes last month in Portillo, Chile. http://www.brandshoescheaponline.com/wholesale-air-max-china/max-720-clearance-sale.html . The New York State Supreme Court only partially dismissed the lawsuit, meaning the case could be headed for trial. The tour announced a year ago that Singh would be suspended for saying in a Sports Illustrated story that he took deer antler spray, which was believed to contain the banned substance IGF-1.ST. LOUIS - The New York Giants are peaking behind a rookie that no one can cover. They all have Odell Beckham Jr.s back, too.Beckham caught two touchdowns and rolled up 118 of his 148 yards receiving in the second half after absorbing two late hits in a 37-27 victory over the St. Louis Rams on Sunday. The Rams hadnt allowed a TD in three straight games.Absolutely, they played dirty, Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul said.Man, they are a dirty team, linebacker Jameel McClain yelled as he entered the locker room.Rams coach Jeff Fisher blamed the Giants.Very disappointing in the actions on the other side, Fisher said. Theres no place for it in the game. Its unfortunate it got out of hand.Beckham set a franchise rookie record with his 10th and 11th TD catches, shattered another rookie mark for receptions and topped 1,000 yards. The second late hit by linebacker Alec Ogletree led to a brawl and three ejections, none of them to starters.Emotions got into the game, said Rams safety T.J. McDonald, whistled for taunting after a sideline hit on Beckham earlier in the second quarter. We took it a little too far.Ogletrees hit finished with some back-and-forth with Beckham — football to the face, slap to the facemask, attempted kick — that led to fisticuffs. Wide receiver Preston Parker jumped Ogletree as he was backing away.Before the penalties were announced, Beckham returned to the field clapping his hands. He thought Ogletree had been trying to dunk him.I love it. As a team, thats playing for the man next to you, Beckham said.Eli Manning was 25 for 32 for 391 yards and three touchdowns, rookie Andre Williams had 110 yards rushing on 26 carries in place of the injured Rashad Jennings, and Rueben Randle also topped the century mark with six catches for 132 yards and a score.New York won handily despite committing 12 penalties for 141 yards — 96 of them in the first half. The Giants excelled in every other phase, scoring 10 points off two first-half turnovers while committing none and dominating in time of possession.Shaun Hill was 24 for 32 for 290 yards with TD passes to Lance Kendricks aand Chris Givens in the second half. Jordan Factory Outlet China. Tre Mason had 13 carries for 76 yards and a score, and Kenny Britt had nine receptions for 103 yards.Their defence riled up the wrong guy, too.That stuff after the play, we just have to give that up, tackle Michael Brockers said.Beckham has 79 receptions, most in NFL history for a player in his first 11 career games and five more than the previous franchise rookie mark by Jeremy Shockey in 2003. Hes had at least 90 yards receiving in eight consecutive games and could tie the NFL record of nine straight by the Cowboys Michael Irvin in 1995 in the finale against Philadelphia.The 11 touchdown catches broke a team record set in 1948 by Bill Swiacki.Beckhams 9-yard TD catch in the first quarter capitalized on a fumble by Benny Cunningham on a kickoff return and put the Giants up 10-0 along with ending the Rams 12-quarter streak without allowing a TD.The Giants had a short field after rookie Orleans Darkwa forced the fumble while Cunningham attempted to spin free. Defensive end Kerry Wynns first career interception — on a pass in and out of the arms of Tavon Austin — set up a first-half field goal.The Rams allowed four field goals in their last game, a 12-6 loss to the Cardinals. They shut out the previous two opponents, Washington and Oakland.Attendance was announced as 55,851, but there were thousands of empty seats at the Edward Jones Dome, which holds 66,000. Players heard some boos at the end of the game.Its pretty disappointing, but youve got to also understand where theyre coming from, Mason said. We have to give them a good show.Notes: Giants OT Will Beatty had a rough day with four holding penalties, one in each quarter. ... Fisher said rookie DB E.J. Gaines had a concussion from getting his helmet knocked off in a collision with McDonald in the third quarter. Gaines also had a lacerated lip. ... Giants K Josh Brown, who played four seasons with St. Louis, was whistled for a personal foul after tangling with the Rams Cody Davis on a kickoff.___AP NFL websites: http://www.pro32.ap.org and http://www.twitter.com/AP_NFL ' ' ' « Nikita Kucherov all scored in the third period forme where both teams were trying to get better." T » More blog posts in this category Common |
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